The Islamic Republic of Iran’s use of criminal intermediaries for extraterritorial assassinations and covert violence: a gray zone strategy of outsourced repression

The Islamic Republic of Iran has employed assassinations and proxy violence as tools of statecraft. Dissidents in exile have been killed, targeted, or systematically threatened, while Israeli-linked entities across Europe have faced repeated attacks. In recent years, Tehran has increasingly outsourced these operations to state-linked criminal intermediaries. This paper analyzes Iran’s approach through the lens of Gray Zone Strategy, showing how criminal outsourcing extends Tehran’s reach, preserves deniability, and enables coercion below the threshold of open conflict. These hybrid tactics blur the boundaries between organized crime, terrorism, and state repression – posing urgent challenges for Western legal, intelligence, and security frameworks.