Iran: Security Situation After the Israel–US War – Why Europe Is Gaining Importance

The 2026 war exposed serious weaknesses in the Islamic Republic’s intelligence services, air defences, and command-and-control structures. At the same time, much of the regime’s capacity to exert pressure through missiles, proxy forces, cyber operations, hostage diplomacy, covert procurement, and repression abroad remains intact. Europe may therefore assume a more prominent role in Iran’s post-war security strategy, particularly as an arena for intelligence activity, sanctions evasion, influence operations, and pressure against the Iranian diaspora. This development calls for a more coordinated European response based on stronger counterintelligence, tighter financial oversight, better protection of dissidents, and more consistent enforcement of sanctions and export controls.