This post was first published on October 6, 2023. On October 8, 2023, it was updated with new text and a table about explosions in the Netherlands.
After I recently stated in the media that only Mexico has more explosions than Sweden, I have been contacted by people who say that Dutch media in the past year have written that there is also explosive violence in the Netherlands and that they are more numerous than in Sweden. Therefore, those who contacted me wonder – quite rightly – why I have not brought this up.
In today's digital society, where information spreads at lightning speed, it is increasingly important to distinguish between scientifically validated data and information that has not yet been validated. As a criminologist, my comments must therefore be grounded in research and empirical evidence. The discussions we have recently had regarding explosive incidents in Sweden and their comparison with other countries have highlighted the necessity of this distinction and that I am writing this short text.
The Swedish context
For a long time, Sweden has not only had major problems with shootings and firearm-related violence, but we have also had serious problems with explosive violence in Sweden. The phenomenon is thus nothing new. Already in 2019, my criminology colleagues Joakim Sturup, Manne Gerell and Amir Rostami, published a very well-executed and interesting scientific study specifically on explosive violence in Sweden and, among other things, attempted to compare hand grenade explosions in the country with other countries in the world. In this study, the colleagues find another scientific study that looked at Mexico and then it is seen that Mexico has more explosions than Sweden. Studies from other countries, not least from Western Europe, are missing.
The result receives some media attention and very accurately Rostami explains the finding:
It is not possible to make reliable numerical comparisons with other Western European countries, because outside Sweden, explosions are so rare that the basis for statistics is extremely small.
Dagens Nyheter, https://www.dn.se/nyheter/sverige/kriminolog-sprangdaden-i-sverige-unika-for-europa/
These comparisons are not made lightly but come from careful research and deliberation.
At the end of 2019, Sveriges Radio conducts an interview with Ylva Ehrlin, an analyst at the police's national bomb squad, who states the following:
We have so many explosions that it is comparable to how it was in northern Spain during ETA's heyday.
Sveriges Radio, https://sverigesradio.se/artikel/7336786
The serious situation was also captured by Evin Badrnya in an editorial published on January 19, 2023.
The challenge of reliable comparisons
Making accurate and reliable comparisons in criminology is often a challenging task. Recently, Dutch media has reported an increase in explosive incidents in the Netherlands. But these figures from the Netherlands are very new. In my latest review, no studies or official reports (at least in English) from Dutch authorities have confirmed these media reports. Given that these events in the Netherlands are so recent, caution and extensive scientific exploration are required to understand the true extent of the problem and, not least, when it began.
While the media plays an indispensable role in informing the public, when it comes to scientific inquiry, media reports do not carry the same weight as peer-reviewed studies. This is not a criticism of the media, but rather an acknowledgment of the differences in scrutiny and validation between journalistic reporting and scientific research.
The situation in the Netherlands
After publishing this post on social media, I received a link from one of my followers. The link led to the Dutch police's website. This is an official website that is reliable, especially since the Netherlands is a strong democracy. The page is however in Dutch, but with the help of Google Translate, among other tools, I was able to get a translation of what is written there. This translation may be highly deficient, which is why what I am writing now should be interpreted with caution.
The Dutch police write:
The LFCT keeps track of the number of explosive incidents and has already registered 303 such incidents by the beginning of July. In 2022, 325 explosions occurred in the Netherlands.
Politie, https://www.politie.nl/nieuws/2023/juli/16/mogelijke-verdubbeling-explosie-incidenten.html
LFCT is the abbreviation for the National Forensic Coordination Team (Landelijk Forensisch Coördinatie Team). Note that the Dutch police statistics only extend up to July 4, 2023.
At the end of the website, a table is presented with three columns: "Type of explosive incident", "2022" and "2023". Under the column "Type of explosive incident" 14 variables are listed and end with "Total".
Of the 14 variables for which the police present figures, six of them are relatively easy to understand, and these are the last six variables:
| Type of explosive incident | 2022 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|
| Finding unexploded ordnance garage box | 3 | 3 |
| Finding unexploded ordnance in vehicles | 11 | 4 |
| Finding other unexploded ordnance | 6 | 18 |
| Finding unexploded ordnance in a house | 14 | 8 |
| Explosives found during searches | 46 | 10 |
| Other | 6 | 3 |
A part of this statistic that Dutch media has reported as bombings/explosions are thus not completed explosions according to the Dutch police's table. This concerns 86 out of 325 for 2022 and 46 out of 303 for 2023 (up to July 4).
I wrote that these six variables are "relatively" easy to understand. Not entirely easy, however. For example, what does "other" mean?
Let us now look at the other variables, which constitute the remaining eight variables.
| Type of explosive incident | 2022 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|
| (attempted) Attack on business | 40 | 64 |
| (attempted) Infrastructure attack | 2 | 0 |
| (attempted) Other attack | 2 | 7 |
| (attempted) Vehicle attack | 12 | 13 |
| (attempted) Attack on home | 159 | 162 |
| (attempted) ATM bombing | 13 | 5 |
| (attempted) Plofkraak Jeweler | 8 | 3 |
| (attempted) Explosive burglary other | 3 | 3 |
The translation is what it is. Google Translate had translated "Attack mot hem" to "Home assault", so I changed this myself to "Attack on home". It has not translated "Plofkraak" at all.
The interesting thing about these variables is what is in parentheses, namely the word attempt. All of these remaining eight variables have the word attempt written in front of them in parentheses. In Dutch, the word is poging. Google Translate translates it to attempt in English. Cambridge Dictionary also translates it to attempt but also, among other things, effort, endeavor, try.
The question then is exactly what the Dutch police mean? It can be interpreted in two ways:
- The figures do not show how many actual and completed explosions there have been, but rather attempted explosions that failed are shown.
- The figures show both how many actual and completed explosions have occurred in the Netherlands and attempted explosions that failed.
I am quite sure that the second point is correct, namely that the figures are a mixture of completed explosions and attempted explosions that failed. And this makes an analysis of the number of explosions in the Netherlands highly problematic.
Conclusion
Peer review, as it is called in English, stands as the gold standard in scientific validation. It means that a study has undergone careful scrutiny by experts in the relevant field. When discussing such sensitive issues as, for example, explosive violence, it is crucial to base our understanding and subsequent conclusions on peer-reviewed research. This approach not only ensures accuracy but also prevents misunderstandings and helps to formulate informed policy decisions.
The complex interplay between media and science in our modern world is multifaceted. Although media offers a quick insight into ongoing events, it cannot replace the depth, rigor, and reliability of peer-reviewed research.
The case of the Netherlands and my statements is a very clear example of this. What is happening in the Netherlands is (1) new, (2) we lack information, (3) we have problems with proper translation, (4) the only official reporting we have clearly shows that a full 26% of all incidents in 2022 were findings of various explosives and not actual explosions as reported by Dutch media.
Regarding the police website and the table presented, several questions arise: What is meant by attempt in parentheses? Is it a sum of both actual explosions and attempted explosions? If so, does preparation for an explosion also count? How many actual explosions do we have then?
And perhaps the most important question of all; have I interpreted the table correctly?
This is why scientific research must be allowed to take time and why researchers should not comment on matters that are very new and where important questions have not been answered.