The Growing Threat to Europe from the Islamic Republic of Iran

Iran’s extraterritorial violence constitutes a structural element of state policy, implemented through a coordinated system of intelligence services, diplomatic platforms, proxy militias, and criminal intermediaries. Rooted in revolutionary doctrine and operationalized by institutions such as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its external arm, the Quds Force, this apparatus has enabled assassinations, bombings, and intimidation campaigns abroad for decades—from the aftermath of the Mykonos trial to the AMIA bombing in Buenos Aires. The Iranian uprising of 2025–2026—marked by mass repression and open calls for regime change under the leadership of Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi—has intensified Tehran’s perception of an existential threat and accelerated transnational repression in Europe. Recent cases indicate a shift toward gray-zone tactics, including the targeted recruitment of European criminal networks and an expansion of reputation-based influence operations. Drawing on recent investigations and intelligence assessments, this study demonstrates how the Islamic Republic strategically integrates terrorism, organized crime, and coercive diplomacy to suppress diaspora mobilization. It concludes that Europe is not facing isolated incidents, but a systematic campaign, and outlines policy countermeasures. These include integrated intelligence defenses, targeted financial disruption of Iranian-directed networks, restrictive diplomatic measures, and the consistent application of national criminal law instruments in the field of state security offenses.